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Microsoft Word - JSM2025_Proceedings.doc
2023 1,943
2024 2,005 1,480 2,717 0.032
2025 2,082 1,239 3,498 0.038
2026 2,166 1,156 4,057 0.040
2027 2,256 1,127 4,519 0.042
2028 2,354 1,125 4,924 0.043
2029 2,459 1,141 5,296 0.044
2030 2,571 1,170 5,649 [...] 0248 yes
(0.0763) (0.0091)
2 ARIMA(2,1,2) 0.00145 -922.42 0.0377 466.21 0.059 yes
2-a ARIMA(0,1,1) 0.1671 -0.0034 0.00146 -922.95 0.0380 464.47 0.021 -0.0034 no
(0.0692) (0.0028)
2-b ARIMA(0,1,1) 0.1729 0 [...] in parantheses; L-B (p): Ljung-Box test, p-value; mean (see Table 1)
Phase 2 : ARIMA(2,1,2): Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ma1 ma2 0.2378 0.5764 -0.0665 -0.6973 s.e. 0.2361 0.1635 0.2287 0.1770
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Key Observations …
